| Models of Running Performance |
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More recently, coaches and researchers have published mathematical models and provided applications to crank out pace and/or heart rate numbers for us. We'll compare three well-known models. Jack Daniels' VDOT. In the 1970s Daniels and colleagues examined the performances and known maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) values for a group of elite middle and long distance runners. Recognizing that equally performing runners may have different VO2 max values, Daniels assigned equal aerobic profiles to equally performing runners and labeled these profiles as VDOT values. Taking the result of a recent race, a runner can look up his or her VDOT value. With that value, a runner can determine an "equivalent performance" at a different race distance and determine the correct pace for five specific training intensities to improve race performance. Daniels documented all this in great detail in his 1988 book, Daniels' Running Formula. If you want to try his approach, you will want to read the book for the full explanation of Daniels' philosophy of training. For practical application, you can skip the complex tables of VDOT values and, instead, use one of the many online calculators. We'll use the version posted here: www.vdotcalculator.com/vdot-calculator/ The VDOT Calculator show here is very easy to use. All you need is a recent race time. My most "recent race" was a mile time trial. I selected the Mile distance option, entered my mile time and clicked the Calculate VDOT button. The VDOT Calculator generated the VDOT value, the column of Equivalent Race Performances and the paces shown for the five Training Zones that Daniels uses. Based on my years of race experiences at widely varying fitness levels, the Equivalent Race Performances look reasonable up to 10K. Above that distance, the times listed look increasingly aggressive. I did run a 2:15 at the Flower City Half in the spring so the 2:10 predicted by the VDOT Calculator might be reachable at my current fitness level on a perfect day and a flatter course. The 4:28 marathon time looks very aggressive now due to my current lack of long runs; a detail unknown to the VDOT Calculator. The paces shown for the five Training Zones also look reasonable. The Marathon Pace listed is the pace to be used for Planned Marathon Pace runs. Missing from the listed zones is a Long Run Pace. The listed Easy Pace is fine for an hour run at my fitness level but would be too fast for a three hour run.
For training paces, Galloway recommends that the repeat miles which make up the core of speed work in his training plans be run at a pace 30 seconds faster than "Magic Mile" marathon pace. Long runs are done using a run/walk/run strategy and the average pace is to be at least two minutes slower than the "Magic Mile" marathon pace. For example, based on my 8:17 mile time, I would run repeat miles at 10:16 pace and long runs no faster than a 12:46 average pace. That probably sounds frightfully slow but actually is about right for this ancient marathoner.
Aged-Graded Calculator. A third model is the WMA (World Masters Athletics) Age Graded Scoring Tables. The tables are based on the men's and women's single age world records for all standard track and road race distances. The dots in the example graph below show the record times for each single year age in the men's 5k. Mathematicians then generate curves (actually equations) to fit the data. The graph shows several candidate curves. Once there's agreement on which curve to use for each race, then tables are generated to be used in scoring times. Scoring is done by comparing the time you run to the world record for a runner of the same age. For a simple example, if at age 60 you run a 5k in the time twice that of the world record for a 60 year old; your age-performance score will be 50%. To spare you from having to do any math, there are online calculators for age graded scoring. The best I've used is here: www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/wmalookup06.html An interesting feature of the calculator at the link above is that, having scored a recent run, you can change the distance to another race distance, click the Result button and the calculator will return the time for the new race distance that matches your age-performance score. In other words, the calculator returns an equivalent race performance based on your current race time. For example, using my current 8:17 mile time trial, the Age Graded Scoring Calculator estimates the equivalent marathon performance would be 4:37 and the equivalent half would be 2:12. The Calculator doesn't provide any guidance on training paces or training volumes.Comparing the Models. The training paces you use this week should be determined by your current level of fitness. And, over the course of training cycle, you hope your fitness will significantly improve. Running a mile time trial or one of the ubiquitous local 5k races every three to four weeks is a good way to reassess your fitness level without jeopardizing your training plan. In fact, the mile or 5k can be easily incorporated as speed work in your training plan. And, as your fitness improves, you can then adjust your training paces to match your new fitness level.
So, how well do each of these models perform? First and foremost, can you use a performance at a much shorter time trail or race to predict race day performance at a much longer distance? The table at the right shows three case studies comparing the three models (Daniels' VDOT, Galloway's "Magic Mile" and WMA Age Graded Scoring) using data from three years and a range of fitness levels. The fitness test for all three years was a mile run done within weeks or several months of the actual races. The predicted results are for the marathon (42k) and half marathon (21k). In all three cases, the runner (old me and a much younger me) is primarily training for the marathon and has not done any mile-specific training. It is fascinating how each model, despite their different origins, predicts an almost identical race performance for the half marathon. There is much more divergence at the full marathon distance. The VDOT Calculator consistently gives the fastest marathon prediction, perhaps because of its origins in data collected from elite (mostly young) runners. My recommendation is to go with the more conservative Magic Mile or Age Graded predicted equivalent performances for the marathon unless you are under 40 years old, moderately fast and training more than 80 miles per week (which I was in 1976).
Recommended App: The Athlete's Calculator The Athlete's Calculator from Stevens Creek Software is just the tool to have on your iPhone (or iPod Touch) if you want to use Galloway's Magic Mile. This calculator knows how to do standard arithmetic calculations (add, subtract, multiply, divide) on time, distance or pace. Getting your predicted marathon time and marathon pace is this simple:
The display will refresh and show your marathon time and pace. The Athlete's Calculator does lots of other useful things. Calculate time, distance or pace by entering any two and calculating the third. Convert distances from miles or yards to kilometers or meters with a simple switch of units. Convert pace from minutes per mile to minutes per kilometer or miles per hour, etc. just as easily. Add a series of split times and more. Stevens Creek Software first developed The Athlete's Calculator for the Palm operating system. I've used on a series of Palm devices for the last 14 years. The owner of Stevens Creek is a serious runner and he has created an essential tool for runners and coaches. Check out The Athlete's Calculator at http://www.stevenscreek.com/. Be sure to check out the movie showing the calculator in action. Then go to iTunes and spend the $3.99 to download it. It's worth it. |
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Every coach and self-coached runner works with a model of running performance.
Go run a mile time trial.